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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."